Oil price hits $80 on Iran concerns


Investment bank Morgan Stanley has forecast that Brent crude is likely average $90 in 2020 with the rise in diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) demand. As previously discussed, these latest advances in the price of crude oil have been heavily fueled by the abandonment of the nuclear deal with Iran by the United States, bringing the potential of shortage in terms of supply. The global benchmark crude traded at a $7.75 premium to West Texas Intermediate for delivery the same month. Thus, this Thursday has reached 72.30 dollars per barrel, its maximum amount since November 2017.

BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley expects a flood of US shale and the reopening of OPEC taps to cool the oil market after crude rose above $80 a barrel this week. The current growth in oil prices already exceeds earlier predictions amid OPEC supply cuts and USA sanctions against Iran.

Back on Nymex, June gasoline RBM8, -0.04% rose 1% to $2.272 a gallon, while June heating oil HOM8, +0.45% rose 1.3% to $2.299 a gallon.

The IEA on Wednesday warned that demand is at risk of being eroded in the second half of this year thanks to the price rally that's been orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and allied oil producing nations including Russian Federation. For its part, Diesel has marked a new annual maximum and levels that were not seen since December 2014 to be in 1.207 euros, a rise of 1.42%, according to data from European Union oil bulletin.

"Strong global demand, an ongoing OPEC supply deal, and a rising tide of geopolitical risk all combine to force the market higher", said Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric.

Late last week, US National Security Advisor John Bolton made it clear that Washington may slap sanctions on European Union companies cooperating with Tehran after the US administration's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

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US West Texas Intermediate crude for June was changing hands at around $71 in early NY trade, virtually unchanged from the previous week's level.

The US decision to reimpose sanctions on Iran could scare off European investors but oil-thirsty China may step into the void and ramp up business links with the country.

Das said that government would need to worry more about the impact of rising crude prices on fiscal deficit and jobs than its effect on inflation.

A day after the American Petroleum Institute's crude oil inventory report put a restraint on oil prices, the Energy Information Administration pushed prices up again by reporting a draw of 1.4 million barrels for the week to May 11.

"I see a lot of this move being seasonal factors".

The surge in US output has been offset by deep supply cuts for over a year by OPEC and other producers including Russian Federation. Washington dropped out of that pact last week, sending oil sharply higher on the belief that Iranian supply will be curbed, when crude inventories are already falling.